Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Doomed to repeat

Those who refuse/fail to learn history/from history are doomed (to repeat it). I've taken some liberties with the quote, but it fits my sentiments better this way. Our youngest daughter is on the home stretch for her Bachelor's degree in history and has recently reached the conclusion, I think in error, that it has no value. At the same time, I have reached the exact opposite conclusion. Hardly a day has passed in the last 12 - 15 months without a fresh reminder of the pitfalls of ignoring and failing to learn from history. My favorite for today is an article in the Wall Street Journal about folks who have concluded that this is the time to abandon buy and hold strategies for day trading.
The past few months I've had time on my hands and have used some of that time to read a considerable amount of pre-1960's literature on the banking system, investing, and just plain history. What struck me is the rapidity with which our political, economic, and financial systems have repeated the same patterns of behavior and achieved the same staggering outcome. It is deja vu at an accelerating pace. I admit I enjoy computers for a variety of reasons and applications. Among other things, they allow us to make mistakes faster. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, if we learn from the mistakes, but as a society we have not learned. What we have done in the past 100 years is gain the ability to repeat increasingly complicated mistakes faster.
We have confused complicated with sophisticated, we have assumed the nobel prize is awarded for being right, and we have abdicated the hard work of understanding how money is made and lost to a host of elaborate financial models and celebrity "advisers".
With respect to the financial system, it is time to slow down and return to the basics. It is time to review and reflect on history emerge with a renewed appreciation for, and definition of, the purpose and role of the banking system. A system which should provide safety and security for investors, and stability and liquidity to borrowers.
In the lavish and self indulgent debates of the various bailout packages a clear description of the endpoint in conspicuously absent. Why is that? Absent is a clear and concise definition or vision of what the commercial and investment banks, and the insurance industry should look like in the future. We need someone to lay out a back to basics goal and allocate regulations and dollars in pursuit of that goal. Rather than a concrete objective (a reconsituted financial system), we have an amorphous goal of revitalizing/jump starting the economy. Without a clear view/goal of a vital and resilient financial system, how will anyone know when we've provided the appropriate basis for that revitalization.
I feel strongly about this because, absent this clear redefinition, I believe we are doomed to repeat. After all, doing the same thing over and over again (faster) and expecting a different result is nuts.

I have beautiful gums









Sometimes you just have to accept praise, regardless of the source. I'm not particularly needy, but some recognition of one's efforts (even the mundane) can provide a little boost to your day.
Yesterday afternoon I went to the dentist for a routine cleaning. I have always been fortunate by birth right or location to have practically cavity free teeth. As can be seen from the picture, they are not straight, but they are surprisingly resistant to rotting. I've become so accustomed to the strength and resiliency of my dental system, that I haven't been nearly as diligence in performing daily maintenance as saaaay - my wife. I do brush every day, once, and floss with considerable irregularity. This haphazard approach to dental hygiene bothers my wife, who diligently follows the maintenance manuals only to require some remedial attention from the dentist. While I have been greeted with praise for my "perfect" teeth and, as of yesterday, "beautiful" gums. What was particularly egregious to my wife of nearly 28 years, was the admonition from the dental hygienist to "promise me that you will keep doing what your doing", i.e. brush once a day and floss occasionally.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Just getting started

Getting used to it. Sounds a little cynical doesn't it and I must admit this label had it's roots in a bit of cynicism "get used to it", but has evolved into a more positive bit of personal philosophy.
What I have found is that people often seem to have just as much trouble adapting to good fortune, as bad. Adapting to or getting used to positive and unexpected changes, often categorized as "good luck", is often met with as much resistance or passivity as unexpected misfortune (the other kind of luck). Initially neither are expected to last. I've concluded that a key step in moving forward positively in response to either kind of surprise first requires "getting used to it", hence the name I have chosen for this blog.