Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Doomed to repeat

Those who refuse/fail to learn history/from history are doomed (to repeat it). I've taken some liberties with the quote, but it fits my sentiments better this way. Our youngest daughter is on the home stretch for her Bachelor's degree in history and has recently reached the conclusion, I think in error, that it has no value. At the same time, I have reached the exact opposite conclusion. Hardly a day has passed in the last 12 - 15 months without a fresh reminder of the pitfalls of ignoring and failing to learn from history. My favorite for today is an article in the Wall Street Journal about folks who have concluded that this is the time to abandon buy and hold strategies for day trading.
The past few months I've had time on my hands and have used some of that time to read a considerable amount of pre-1960's literature on the banking system, investing, and just plain history. What struck me is the rapidity with which our political, economic, and financial systems have repeated the same patterns of behavior and achieved the same staggering outcome. It is deja vu at an accelerating pace. I admit I enjoy computers for a variety of reasons and applications. Among other things, they allow us to make mistakes faster. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, if we learn from the mistakes, but as a society we have not learned. What we have done in the past 100 years is gain the ability to repeat increasingly complicated mistakes faster.
We have confused complicated with sophisticated, we have assumed the nobel prize is awarded for being right, and we have abdicated the hard work of understanding how money is made and lost to a host of elaborate financial models and celebrity "advisers".
With respect to the financial system, it is time to slow down and return to the basics. It is time to review and reflect on history emerge with a renewed appreciation for, and definition of, the purpose and role of the banking system. A system which should provide safety and security for investors, and stability and liquidity to borrowers.
In the lavish and self indulgent debates of the various bailout packages a clear description of the endpoint in conspicuously absent. Why is that? Absent is a clear and concise definition or vision of what the commercial and investment banks, and the insurance industry should look like in the future. We need someone to lay out a back to basics goal and allocate regulations and dollars in pursuit of that goal. Rather than a concrete objective (a reconsituted financial system), we have an amorphous goal of revitalizing/jump starting the economy. Without a clear view/goal of a vital and resilient financial system, how will anyone know when we've provided the appropriate basis for that revitalization.
I feel strongly about this because, absent this clear redefinition, I believe we are doomed to repeat. After all, doing the same thing over and over again (faster) and expecting a different result is nuts.

2 comments:

  1. Amen to that. While technology can be used for many amazing things, it can only take its orders from us. If we keep on making the same mistakes, it is clearly a waste.

    Do you think Obama will help the current situation at all?

    I really like what you have to say, so I thought I'd subscribe!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dad, you're really neglecting your blog here...

    ReplyDelete